XXII. Pakistan and India Relations Since 1947 — Pakistan Affairs

📂 START HERE — How This Page Is Organised

No child pages here — read the sections below in order, then the solved past paper at the end.

📝 Actual CSS question from this chapter

CSS 2020 Q4 — Simla Agreement: provisions and durable peace

📺 Directly Relevant YouTube Lecture Sources

Early Problems of Pakistan (1947–48) — early problems: Partition violence, assets, canal water, Kashmir
Ayub Khan Regime — Part II (1962–1969) — Ayub, Part II: 1965 war and Tashkent
Separation of East Pakistan (1971) — Causes — 1971 war and India's role
Zulfikar Ali Bhutto Era (1971–1977) — Bhutto: Simla Agreement (CSS 2020 Q4)
Political History 1988–1999 — Decade Between Two Martial Laws — 1988–99: Lahore Declaration and Kargil
The Musharraf Era (1999–2008) — Musharraf: Agra and the composite dialogue
Current Tenure — Coalition Governments (2022–Present) — current tenure: the May 2025 crisis

📌 Topic Contents

📖 Wars & Major Conflicts
📖 Peace Process Attempts
📖 Key Structural Issues
📖 Current State (2020s)
📖 May 2025 Crisis — Must Know
📖 Argument Bank
📖 Irritants
📖 Why peace efforts fail
📖 Peace dividends foregone
📖 Answer Outline (20 marks)
📖 Exam angle
📖 ✍️ Model Answer (20 marks)
📖 Outline
📖 1. Introduction
📖 2. Historical Overview
📖 3. Major Irritants
📖 4. Peace Initiatives and Why They Failed

CSS focus: identify the examiner's demand, show a clear argument, cite dated evidence and qualify contested claims.

Wars & Major Conflicts

1947-48 — First Kashmir War, following Partition & princely state accession dispute
1965 — Second war, largely over Kashmir (Operation Gibraltar) — ended in Tashkent Declaration
1971 — Third war, led to Bangladesh's creation — Pakistan's most significant strategic defeat; followed by Simla Agreement (1972) establishing Line of Control
1999 — Kargil conflict — limited but intense, occurred post-nuclearization, raised global alarm
2019 — Balakot airstrikes/Pulwama fallout — first cross-LoC airstrikes since 1971; near-war crisis, de-escalated via Wing Commander Abhinandan's release

Peace Process Attempts

Lahore Declaration (1999) — bus diplomacy, Vajpayee-Sharif
Agra Summit (2001) — failed to produce agreement
Composite Dialogue Process (2004 onward) — periodic, repeatedly derailed by crises
2008 Mumbai attacks — major derailment point, dialogue suspended for years

Key Structural Issues

Kashmir dispute — core unresolved issue since 1947 (see Topic XXIII)
Indus Waters Treaty — rare functioning cooperation mechanism, now under strain (2025 abeyance)
Trade — minimal formal trade despite geographic proximity; suspended after Aug 2019 (India's Article 370 move)
Siachen & Sir Creek — smaller unresolved territorial/boundary disputes

Current State (2020s)

Diplomatic relations downgraded since 2019 (India's revocation of Article 370 in J&K)
No formal dialogue process active; occasional backchannel contacts reported
Relationship remains security/Kashmir-dominated with periodic crisis flashpoints

May 2025 Crisis — Must Know

22 April 2025: Pahalgam attack in Indian-administered Kashmir kills 26; India blames Pakistan, which denies involvement and offers a neutral investigation.
23 April: India holds the Indus Waters Treaty "in abeyance", closes the Attari border and expels diplomats. Pakistan closes its airspace to Indian airlines, suspends trade and warns that stopping water would be an "act of war"; it says it may hold bilateral agreements, including Simla, in abeyance.
7 May: India strikes sites in Pakistan and Azad Kashmir (Operation Sindoor); Pakistan reports shooting down several Indian aircraft.
10 May: Pakistan's retaliation (Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos); ceasefire the same day, announced first by President Trump — India denies third-party mediation.
Aftermath: India declares any major terror attack will be treated as an act of war; relations remain frozen; Pakistan's army chief promoted to Field Marshal.

Argument Bank

Irritants

Kashmir
Terrorism accusations
Water: IWT, Kishanganga, Ratle, Baglihar
Siachen and Sir Creek
Minorities and Hindutva politics
Arms race and nuclear doctrine
Afghanistan and Balochistan (proxy accusations)

Why peace efforts fail

Spoilers striking at key moments: Kargil 1999, Mumbai 2008, Pathankot 2016, Pulwama 2019, Pahalgam 2025
Nationalist domestic politics
Trust deficit
No third-party mediation (India rejects it)

Peace dividends foregone

Formal trade: a few billion dollars at most, vs a World Bank estimate of about $37 billion potential
Energy trade
Tourism, e.g. the Kartarpur Corridor (2019; now closed by India)

Answer Outline (20 marks)

Introduction — Partition legacy and a relationship of "conflict and crises".
Chronological table — wars, crises and agreements (1947–2025).
Core irritants.
Peace initiatives and why they failed.
May 2025 crisis and the "new normal".
Role of third parties (US, China, UN).
Way forward — structured dialogue, CBMs, water diplomacy, trade, people-to-people contacts, Kashmir as the core.
Conclusion.

Exam angle

Build a clean timeline table: event → year → outcome or agreement.
Usually tested as a "trace the relations" question.

✍️ Model Answer (20 marks)

Question: Trace the history of Pakistan–India relations since 1947, identify the major irritants, and suggest a way forward.

Outline

Introduction
Historical overview (1947–2025)
Major irritants
Peace initiatives and why they failed
The May 2025 crisis and the "new normal"
Role of third parties
Way forward
Conclusion

1. Introduction

Born from the same partition, but defined by wars, crises and mistrust.
Roots of the rivalry: Partition violence, Kashmir and competing state ideologies.
Both nuclear powers since 1998 — a global concern.
May 2025 showed the rivalry is still dangerous and peace still elusive.

2. Historical Overview

1947–48: Partition violence, the division of assets, and the first Kashmir war, ending in a UN-brokered ceasefire (1949).
1960: the Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank, a rare success.
1965 war and the Tashkent Declaration (1966).
1971 war: the separation of East Pakistan; the Simla Agreement (1972) converted the ceasefire line into the Line of Control.
1974: India's nuclear test; 1998: both countries test.
1999: the Lahore Declaration, followed by the Kargil conflict.
2001: the Agra Summit fails; 2001–02 military standoff.
2004–08: the composite dialogue; a ceasefire on the LoC (2003); trade and travel links.
2008: the Mumbai attacks end the dialogue.
2016–19: Uri, Pulwama and the Balakot airstrike; Pakistan's retaliation and return of the captured pilot.
August 2019: India revokes Article 370; Pakistan downgrades ties and suspends trade.
2021: LoC ceasefire renewed.
2025: Pahalgam attack, Indian strikes (Operation Sindoor), Pakistan's retaliation (Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos), and a ceasefire on 10 May.

3. Major Irritants

Kashmir: the core dispute.
Terrorism accusations: India blames Pakistan-based groups; Pakistan alleges Indian sponsorship of militancy in Balochistan and KP.
Water: Indian projects (Kishanganga, Ratle, Baglihar) and the Indus Waters Treaty held "in abeyance" since April 2025.
Siachen and Sir Creek.
Arms race and nuclear doctrines.
Hindutva politics and the treatment of Muslims in India.
Competition in Afghanistan and regional forums.

4. Peace Initiatives and Why They Failed

Initiatives: Tashkent, Simla, Lahore, Agra, the composite dialogue, back channels (the four-point formula of 2006–07), the Kartarpur Corridor (2019).
Reasons for failure:
- Spoilers striking at critical moments (Kargil 1999, Mumbai 2008, Pathankot 2016, Pulwama 2019, Pahalgam 2025).
- Domestic nationalist politics on both sides.
- Deep mistrust and different priorities: Pakistan puts Kashmir first; India puts terrorism first.
- India's rejection of third-party mediation.

5. The May 2025 Crisis and the "New Normal"

After the Pahalgam attack (22 April), India held the IWT in abeyance, closed the border and expelled diplomats. Pakistan closed its airspace, suspended trade and warned that stopping water would be an act of war.
Indian strikes on 7 May were followed by Pakistan's retaliation on 10 May and a ceasefire the same day, which the US claimed to have brokered.
Aftermath: India says any major terror attack will be treated as an act of war, lowering the threshold for conflict. The Court of Arbitration ruled in September 2026 that India cannot suspend the IWT unilaterally; India rejected the ruling.

6. Role of Third Parties

UN: resolutions, UNMOGIP
World Bank: the IWT
US: crisis management in 1999, 2019 and 2025
China: diplomatic backing for Pakistan
India still insists on bilateralism under Simla.

7. Way Forward

Crisis management: a reliable hotline and a communication channel between military leaders and national security advisers.
Structured dialogue covering all issues, including Kashmir and terrorism.
Water diplomacy: restore the IWT's full operation and use its dispute mechanisms.
Confidence-building measures: LoC ceasefire, nuclear risk reduction, missile test notifications.
Trade and connectivity: normal trade could be worth tens of billions of dollars (the World Bank estimated a potential of about $37 billion).
People-to-people contacts: visas, sport, religious tourism (Kartarpur).
A Kashmir process involving the Kashmiri people, based on UN resolutions and creative solutions.

8. Conclusion

Seventy-eight years after Partition, Pakistan and India remain locked in a rivalry that has cost both dearly. The May 2025 conflict showed that nuclear deterrence prevents full-scale war but cannot guarantee peace. Lasting normalisation will come only when both sides address the root causes, above all Kashmir, while insulating peace processes from spoilers. Peace between Pakistan and India would transform South Asia; its continued absence keeps one-fifth of humanity hostage to the risk of war.

📝 CSS Past Papers 2014–2026 — This Chapter (Solved)

📊

Asked so far: 1 subjective question (2020 — Simla Agreement); Kashmir and Indus questions are under XXIII and XVII · 9 MCQs (2014, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2023, 2024 ×2, 2025). The Tashkent Declaration has come up three times: the Indian Prime Minister in 2014 and 2024, and the date in 2025.

2024–2026 MCQs are from the FPSC papers with original options. 2014–2023 MCQs come from published answer keys (the FPSC copies only contain Part-II), so their options are rewritten but the keyed answer is kept and checked.

Part-I — Past MCQs

1. (CSS 2014) The Prime Minister of India at the time of the Tashkent Declaration was:

(A) Jawaharlal Nehru
(B) Lal Bahadur Shastri
(C) Indira Gandhi
(D) Gulzarilal Nanda
✅ (B) Lal Bahadur Shastri — died in Tashkent early on 11 January 1966, the night after signing.

2. (CSS 2024) Who was the Prime Minister of India at the time of the Tashkent agreement?

(A) Lal Bahadur Shastri
(B) Indira Gandhi
(C) Rajiv Gandhi
(D) None of these
✅ (A) Lal Bahadur Shastri — repeated from 2014. Pakistan: President Ayub Khan. Mediator: Soviet PM Alexei Kosygin.

3. (CSS 2025) The Tashkent Agreement was signed on:

(A) January 10, 1966
(B) February 10, 1966
(C) March 10, 1966
(D) None of these
✅ (A) 10 January 1966 — ended the 1965 war.
- Withdrawal to pre-5 August 1965 positions; relations restored.
- Its unpopularity helped Bhutto break with Ayub.

4. (CSS 2017) The only Indian to receive Pakistan's highest civil award (Nishan-e-Pakistan) is:

(A) Atal Bihari Vajpayee
(B) Morarji Desai
(C) Dilip Kumar
(D) Manmohan Singh
✅ (B) Morarji Desai (1990). Dilip Kumar received the Nishan-e-Imtiaz (1998).

5. (CSS 2018) The Simla Agreement was signed on:

(A) 2 July 1972
(B) 10 January 1966
(C) 3 July 1971
(D) 21 February 1999
✅ (A) 2 July 1972 — signed late at night by Bhutto and Indira Gandhi; ratified by Pakistan 15 July 1972.

6. (CSS 2019) The Lahore Declaration between Pakistan and India was signed in:

(A) February 1999
(B) July 2001
(C) January 2004
(D) May 1998
✅ (A) February 1999 — 21 February, Nawaz Sharif and Vajpayee (who came on the first Delhi–Lahore bus).
- Included nuclear CBMs; Kargil followed in May 1999.

7. (CSS 2020) "26/11" refers to which terrorist attack?

(A) Samjhauta Express attack
(B) 2008 Mumbai attacks
(C) 2001 Indian Parliament attack
(D) Pathankot attack
✅ (B) Mumbai attacks (26 November 2008) — about 166 killed; India suspended the composite dialogue.

8. (CSS 2023) The Kartarpur Corridor lies near which district?

(A) Sialkot
(B) Narowal
(C) Nankana Sahib
(D) Gujranwala
✅ (B) Narowal — links Gurdwara Darbar Sahib (Guru Nanak's last years) with Dera Baba Nanak in India; opened 9 November 2019.

9. (CSS 2024) Operation "Swift Retort" (printed "Swift Resort") was launched by:

(A) USA against Afghanistan
(B) Pakistan against India
(C) India against Pakistan
(D) None of these
✅ (B) Pakistan against India — 27 February 2019, a day after Balakot.
- PAF downed a MiG-21; Wg Cdr Abhinandan captured, released 1 March.
- Also remember Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos (10 May 2025).

Part-II — Past Subjective Questions

1. CSS 2020 Q4 — What are the major provisions of the Simla Agreement (1972) between Pakistan and India? How far was it helpful for the establishment of durable peace in the region? (20)

Outline

Introduction
Background
Major provisions
Implementation
How far it helped establish peace
Its limitations
Present status
Conclusion

Answer

1. Introduction

The Simla Agreement was signed on 2 July 1972 by Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. It was the first major agreement between the two countries after the war of 1971.

2. Background

At the end of the war India held about 93,000 Pakistani prisoners of war and around 5,000 square miles of West Pakistani territory. Pakistan's priority was to recover both.

3. Major provisions

Relations between the two countries would be governed by the principles of the UN Charter.
Differences would be settled peacefully through bilateral negotiations or any other means the two sides agreed on.
Neither side would use force, and each would respect the other's territorial integrity and avoid interference in its internal affairs.
In Jammu and Kashmir, the ceasefire line of 17 December 1971 would become the Line of Control, to be respected by both sides "without prejudice to the recognised position of either side".
Forces would withdraw to their own side of the international border within 30 days.
Communications, trade, travel and cultural exchanges would be restored, and hostile propaganda would stop.
The two leaders would meet again to settle Kashmir, the prisoners of war and the restoration of diplomatic relations.

4. Implementation

Troops were withdrawn by December 1972.
After the Delhi Agreement of 1973, prisoners of war were returned during 1973 and 1974.
Full diplomatic relations were restored in 1976.

5. How far it helped establish peace

There was no full-scale war between the two countries from 1972 until the Kargil conflict of 1999.
The agreement provided a framework for later confidence-building measures.
The Line of Control became more stable than the old ceasefire line.

6. Its limitations

India has used the agreement's reference to bilateral talks to reject any role for the United Nations or third parties on Kashmir.
India's occupation of Siachen in 1984 and the Kargil conflict of 1999 went against its spirit.
No final settlement of Kashmir was ever reached.
Serious crises continued, including after both countries became nuclear powers.

7. Present status

In April 2025, after India held the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, Pakistan said that it could in turn hold the Simla Agreement in abeyance.

8. Conclusion

The Simla Agreement helped Pakistan recover its prisoners and territory and kept the peace for nearly three decades. It managed the conflict between the two countries, however, rather than resolving it, and the core issue of Kashmir remains as open as it was in 1972.

Full 20-mark answer: CSS 2020 — Pakistan Affairs Paper (Solved)

🧠 Additional Practice Questions — Not Actual FPSC Past Papers

"Trace the history of Pakistan-India relations and identify the major irritants."
"Composite dialogue between Pakistan and India: success or failure?"
"Can Pakistan and India normalise relations without resolving Kashmir?"
"Indus Waters Treaty under threat: implications for Pakistan."