PML-N's Third Term (2013–2018)

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Topic: PML-N's Third Term (2013–2018) — Nawaz Sharif's third stint as PM, enabled by the 18th Amendment's removal of the two-term limit. Covers the 2013 election, the CPEC launch, the Dharna/PTI sit-in, the Panama Papers case and Nawaz's disqualification, and the completion of Pakistan's second consecutive full civilian term.

Note: No lecture transcript was available; compiled independently for CSS Pakistan Affairs.

CSS relevance: 🔥 Very high — CPEC, the Panama Papers/Panamagate case, and "Articles 62/63 disqualification" are among the most frequently asked contemporary topics.

🗺️ Overview

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I. The 2013 General Elections

• Held on 11 May 2013, following the PPP government's completion of its full 5-year term (2008–2013) — itself a first in Pakistan's history (see the PPP Third Tenure notes).
• PML-N won a decisive majority, securing roughly 166 seats (with allies reaching majority) in the National Assembly of 342.
• PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf), led by Imran Khan, emerged as a major third political force for the first time, winning government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and establishing itself as the principal opposition to PML-N, displacing PPP in that role in much of the country.
• PPP was reduced largely to Sindh, retaining government there but losing significant ground nationally.
• Nawaz Sharif became PM for the third time on 5 June 2013, made possible by the 18th Amendment's removal of the two-term limit on the PM/CM office (see the 18th Amendment notes).
• This election is regarded as Pakistan's first-ever peaceful, constitutional transfer of power between two full-term democratically elected civilian governments (PPP to PML-N).

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II. Cabinet, Early Priorities & Governance Style

• Nawaz Sharif's government prioritised:
  1. Resolving the energy crisis, particularly chronic electricity load-shedding inherited from the PPP era.
  2. Economic stabilisation, including a fresh IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme in 2013 to address a balance-of-payments crisis.
  3. Counter-terrorism, given the ongoing threat from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and related militant groups.
• Nawaz's governance style was noted for a relatively centralised, business-and-infrastructure-focused approach, with close attention to large infrastructure projects (motorways, power plants) as his signature legacy, echoing his earlier terms (see the 1988–1999 notes).

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III. China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

• Formally launched in April 2015, during Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Pakistan, with agreements initially valued at around US$46 billion (later expanded).
• CPEC is the flagship project of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Pakistan, comprising:
  • Energy projects: coal, hydel, solar and wind power plants to address Pakistan's chronic energy shortfall.
  • Infrastructure: road and rail links connecting Gwadar Port (Balochistan) to Kashgar (China) via the Karakoram Highway and new motorway networks.
  • Gwadar Port development: intended as a deep-sea port and strategic trade gateway, giving China access to the Arabian Sea and reducing its reliance on the Strait of Malacca.
  • Special Economic Zones (SEZs) planned across Pakistan to attract industrial investment.
• Strategic significance:
  • Central to Pakistan's relationship with China, its closest strategic partner (see the Bhutto and Ayub-era China relations notes for historical context).
  • Seen as a potential game-changer for Pakistan's energy security and infrastructure.
• Criticism and concerns:
  • Debt sustainability concerns: critics warned of Pakistan taking on significant Chinese loans, raising fears of a debt trap (a global concern about BRI projects generally).
  • Balochistan's concerns: local grievances over insufficient local employment and resource benefit-sharing from Gwadar's development, feeding into existing Baloch nationalist grievances (see the Musharraf-era Akbar Bugti notes).
  • Security challenges: CPEC routes and Chinese personnel became targets of militant attacks, requiring dedicated security forces (Special Security Division).
  • Transparency concerns: opposition parties and analysts raised questions about the terms of CPEC agreements and the lack of public disclosure.

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IV. Operation Zarb-e-Azb (2014)

• Launched in June 2014, following the Jinnah International Airport attack (Karachi, June 2014), which was widely seen as the final trigger after a failed peace process with the TTP earlier that year.
• A major military offensive in North Waziristan, targeting TTP and other militant sanctuaries near the Afghan border.
• Result: significantly degraded TTP's organisational capacity and cleared major militant strongholds, though it also caused large-scale displacement of the local population (Temporarily Displaced Persons, TDPs).
• Followed by the tragic Army Public School (APS) Peshawar attack (December 2014), in which TTP militants killed over 140 people, mostly schoolchildren — a watershed moment that led to the National Action Plan (NAP), a 20-point counter-terrorism framework adopted with political consensus across all parties, and the lifting of the moratorium on the death penalty for terrorism-related cases.

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V. The 2014 Dharna (PTI Sit-in)

• August–December 2014: PTI, led by Imran Khan, along with Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT), led by Tahir-ul-Qadri, organised a prolonged sit-in (dharna) in Islamabad, alleging massive rigging in the 2013 general election.
• PTI's central demand: Nawaz Sharif's resignation and a judicial inquiry into alleged rigging, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab constituencies.
• The protest continued for over 120 days, significantly disrupting parliamentary business and raising concerns about political stability, though the government did not fall.
• Resolution: a Judicial Commission was later formed (2015) to investigate the rigging allegations; it ultimately found no evidence of systematic, organised rigging, though it noted administrative and procedural irregularities.
• Significance: exposed deep PML-N–PTI political polarisation that would persist and intensify through subsequent years, and tested civil–military relations, with speculation about the military's neutrality/role during the crisis.

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VI. The Panama Papers Case & Nawaz Sharif's Disqualification

Background

• April 2016: the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) released the "Panama Papers," a massive leak of documents from the Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca, revealing offshore companies and assets linked to numerous global political figures — including Nawaz Sharif's children (Maryam, Hasan, and Hussain Nawaz), who were found to own offshore companies linked to London properties.

Legal proceedings

• PTI and other opposition parties petitioned the Supreme Court, demanding an investigation into the source of funding for these properties.
• 20 April 2017: the Supreme Court, in a split verdict, ordered the formation of a Joint Investigation Team (JIT) to probe the matter further, rather than immediately disqualifying Nawaz.
• JIT's findings raised further questions about the Sharif family's wealth trail, including the now-famous "Iqama" (Gulf work permit) issue — evidence that Nawaz held an undeclared Iqama and salary from a UAE company (Capital FZE), which he had not declared in his nomination papers for the 2013 election.

Disqualification

• 28 July 2017: the Supreme Court unanimously disqualified Nawaz Sharif as Prime Minister, ruling him "not honest" (Sadiq and Ameen) under Articles 62(1)(f) and 63 of the Constitution, on the undeclared Iqama/salary issue — not directly on the core Panama allegations themselves.
• This made Nawaz Sharif the third Pakistani PM to be removed by judicial action in relatively quick succession in Pakistan's history (alongside earlier judicial/executive dismissals across Pakistan's political history — see the 1988–1999 and PPP tenure notes for parallel episodes).
• Nawaz Sharif was later also convicted in separate corruption references (the Avenfield reference, related to the London properties) by an Accountability Court in 2018, receiving a prison sentence — a case that continued to evolve through appeals in subsequent years.

Political aftermath

• Shahid Khaqan Abbasi was elected PM shortly after (see Section VII), while Nawaz Sharif retained leadership of PML-N as party president for a period, until further legal rulings restricted even that role — leading to his brother Shehbaz Sharif and later other family members taking more prominent party roles.
• PML-N's slogan "Vote ko Izzat Do" ("Respect the Vote") became central to its political messaging following the disqualification, framing the episode as judicial overreach against an elected leader.

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VII. Shahid Khaqan Abbasi's Interim Premiership (2017–2018)

• 1 August 2017: Shahid Khaqan Abbasi was elected PM by the National Assembly, serving as a caretaker-like continuity figure for PML-N until the government's term concluded.
• His tenure focused on completing CPEC-related projects, continuing economic policy, and steering the government through to the 2018 elections without major new policy departures, given the political uncertainty following Nawaz's disqualification.

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VIII. Economy Under PML-N (2013–2018)

• GDP growth improved over the tenure, from around 3–4% early on to roughly 5.5–5.8% by 2017–18, the highest sustained growth rate in over a decade at the time.
• Major achievements:
  • Significant reduction in load-shedding, driven by new power generation capacity (including CPEC energy projects) — though circular debt in the energy sector remained a persistent structural problem.
  • Large-scale motorway and infrastructure development, continuing Nawaz's long-standing focus (e.g., the Lahore–Islamabad Motorway extensions, Multan–Sukkur Motorway).
  • Exit from the 2013 IMF programme in 2016, with improved macroeconomic indicators at the time.
• Criticism and challenges:
  • Rising current account and fiscal deficits by the end of the tenure, driven partly by rising imports (including CPEC-related machinery) and falling exports — setting the stage for another balance-of-payments crisis that the incoming PTI government would inherit in 2018.
  • Circular debt in the power sector continued to balloon, despite generation capacity improvements.
  • Critics argued growth was not sufficiently inclusive, with limited progress on structural reforms (taxation base widening, export competitiveness).

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IX. Foreign Policy

• China: the relationship deepened substantially through CPEC, cementing China as Pakistan's primary strategic and economic partner of this period.
• India: relations began with cautious optimism — Nawaz attended Narendra Modi's 2014 inauguration, and Modi made a surprise visit to Lahore in December 2015 for Nawaz's granddaughter's wedding — but relations deteriorated sharply following:
  • The Pathankot attack (January 2016) and Uri attack (September 2016) in India, both blamed on Pakistan-based militants.
  • Rising tensions over Kashmir, and India's "surgical strikes" claim across the Line of Control in 2016.
• USA: relations remained complex, with continuing counter-terrorism cooperation but growing US frustration over alleged Pakistani support for militant safe havens, particularly under the incoming Trump administration's more critical stance toward the end of this tenure.
• Afghanistan: relations were strained periodically over cross-border militancy concerns and disputes over the Durand Line/border management.

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X. End of Term & the 2018 Transition

• Despite Nawaz Sharif's mid-term disqualification, the PML-N-led government completed its full constitutional term through Shahid Khaqan Abbasi's premiership, making this Pakistan's second consecutive full-term civilian government (after PPP's 2008–2013 term) — a further consolidation of democratic continuity.
• General elections were held on 25 July 2018, resulting in a PTI-led government under Imran Khan (see the separate PTI Government 2018–2022 notes).

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📊 Key Figures at a Glance

🗓️ Timeline

• 11 May 2013: general election; PML-N wins.
• 5 Jun 2013: Nawaz Sharif becomes PM (3rd term).
• Jun 2014: Zarb-e-Azb launched (North Waziristan).
• Aug 2014: PTI/PAT Dharna begins.
• 16 Dec 2014: APS Peshawar attack; National Action Plan adopted.
• Dec 2014: Dharna ends.
• Apr 2015: CPEC formally launched (Xi Jinping's visit).
• Dec 2015: Modi's surprise Lahore visit.
• Jan 2016: Pathankot attack (India).
• Apr 2016: Panama Papers leaked.
• Sep 2016: Uri attack; India's "surgical strikes" claim.
• 20 Apr 2017: SC orders JIT.
• 28 Jul 2017: Nawaz Sharif disqualified.
• 1 Aug 2017: Shahid Khaqan Abbasi becomes PM.
• 2018: Avenfield reference conviction (Accountability Court).
• 25 Jul 2018: general election; PTI wins.

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⚠️ MCQ Traps

• Nawaz Sharif's third term was made possible by the 18th Amendment's removal of the two-term PM/CM limit (imposed earlier by Musharraf's 17th Amendment).
• CPEC was launched in April 2015, not at the start of the tenure in 2013.
• Operation Zarb-e-Azb (2014) targeted North Waziristan; don't confuse it with Operation Rah-e-Nijat (2009, South Waziristan, under the PPP government).
• The APS Peshawar attack led directly to the National Action Plan (NAP), a 20-point framework — a frequently tested detail.
• Nawaz Sharif was disqualified not directly over the Panama Papers allegations, but over the undeclared "Iqama"/UAE salary issue under Articles 62(1)(f) and 63.
• The Avenfield reference conviction (2018) is a separate, later case from the disqualification (2017) — the disqualification made him ineligible for office; the Avenfield case was a criminal conviction.
• The 2018 election marks Pakistan's third consecutive general election following a completed civilian term — a landmark of democratic consolidation, distinct from (but building on) the "first peaceful transition" claim of 2013.

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✍️ Model Answer Outline

Q. Discuss the major political and economic developments of PML-N's third term (2013–2018).

1. Introduction: the 2013 election, historic peaceful transition, Nawaz's third term enabled by the 18th Amendment.
2. Security: Zarb-e-Azb, the APS attack, and the National Action Plan.
3. Economic flagship: CPEC — features, significance, and criticism (debt, Balochistan, security, transparency).
4. Political challenges: the 2014 Dharna and its implications for stability and civil–military relations.
5. The Panama Papers crisis: the JIT process, the Iqama-based disqualification, and its political fallout ("Vote ko Izzat Do").
6. Economy: growth trajectory, achievements (load-shedding reduction), and structural weaknesses (deficits, circular debt).
7. Foreign policy: China (deepened), India (deteriorated), US (strained), Afghanistan (tense).
8. Conclusion: despite Nawaz's mid-term removal, the government completed its full term under Abbasi — a further consolidation of Pakistan's democratic continuity, even as it exposed the fragility of civilian tenures to judicial and political pressure.

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🧠 Self-Test Questions

1. How did the 18th Amendment make Nawaz Sharif's third term possible?
2. What are the main components of CPEC, and what criticisms has it attracted?
3. What triggered Operation Zarb-e-Azb, and what was the National Action Plan's origin?
4. What were PTI's core demands during the 2014 Dharna, and how was it resolved?
5. Trace the legal process from the Panama Papers leak to Nawaz Sharif's disqualification.
6. On what specific constitutional grounds was Nawaz Sharif disqualified?
7. How did India–Pakistan relations evolve during this tenure?
8. What economic achievements and weaknesses characterised this period?

⚡ 60-Second Revision

2013: PML-N wins (11 May), Nawaz PM 3rd term (5 Jun, enabled by 18th Amendment) • Security: Zarb-e-Azb (Jun 2014, N. Waziristan) → APS Peshawar attack (Dec 2014) → National Action Plan (20 points) • Politics: PTI/PAT Dharna (Aug-Dec 2014, rigging allegations, Judicial Commission finds no systematic rigging) • CPEC launched Apr 2015 (~$46bn): energy, infrastructure, Gwadar, SEZs — debt/Balochistan/security/transparency concerns • India: Modi's Lahore visit (Dec 2015) → Pathankot (Jan 2016) → Uri + surgical strikes claim (Sep 2016) → relations sour • Panama Papers (Apr 2016) → SC orders JIT (20 Apr 2017) → Nawaz disqualified (28 Jul 2017) on Iqama/undeclared UAE salary under Arts 62(1)(f)/63 • Shahid Khaqan Abbasi PM (1 Aug 2017) completes term • 2018: Avenfield reference conviction • Economy: growth ~3%→5.5-5.8%, reduced load-shedding, motorways, IMF exit 2016, but rising deficits and circular debt by tenure-end • 25 Jul 2018: election → PTI wins, Pakistan's 3rd consecutive full-term civilian transition

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Next in sequence: the PTI Government (2018–2022).