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XXV. Proxy Wars: Role of External Elements

📂 START HERE — How This Page Is Organised

No child pages here — read the sections below in order, then the solved past paper at the end.

📝 Actual CSS question from this chapter

  • CSS 2020 Q5 — Meaning of proxy war; external factors in Pakistan's internal security

📺 Directly Relevant YouTube Lecture Sources

📌 Topic Contents

  1. 📖 Concept
  2. 📖 Historical Pakistani Involvement (as actor)
  3. 📖 Pakistan as Target of Proxy Activity (Pakistan's narrative)
  4. 📖 Regional Proxy Dynamics Affecting Pakistan
  5. 📖 Pakistan's Official Position
  6. 📖 Recent Developments (2024–2026)
  7. 📖 Argument Bank
  8. 📖 Answer Outline (20 marks)
  9. 📖 Exam angle
  10. 📖 ✍️ Model Answer (20 marks)
  11. 📖 Outline
  12. 📖 1. Introduction
  13. 📖 2. Why Pakistan Is Vulnerable
  14. 📖 3. External Elements and Their Role
  15. 📖 4. Theatres of Proxy War
  16. 📖 5. Pakistan's Own Past Role
  17. 📖 6. Impact

20-mark technique: frame a thesis; explain causes and consequences; substantiate claims; assess alternative explanations.

Concept

  • Proxy war = conflict where external powers support non-state or state actors to pursue strategic goals without direct confrontation

Historical Pakistani Involvement (as actor)

  • Afghanistan (1979-89) — Pakistan/US/Saudi proxy support to Mujahideen against Soviet-backed Kabul govt
  • Post-1989 — continued involvement backing various Afghan factions/Taliban for "strategic depth"
  • Kashmir — India accuses Pakistan of supporting militancy in Indian-administered Kashmir as proxy tool; Pakistan denies, frames as indigenous freedom struggle

Pakistan as Target of Proxy Activity (Pakistan's narrative)

  • Balochistan — Pakistan alleges Indian (RAW) involvement in funding/supporting BLA and other separatist groups; cites Kulbhushan Jadhav case (2016, Indian naval officer convicted of espionage/sabotage) as evidence
  • TTP — Pakistan alleges Afghan soil/Indian financial support used against Pakistani state (contested claims)
  • Sectarian militancy — allegations of external funding fueling sectarian proxy conflicts (Saudi-Iran regional rivalry spillover)

Regional Proxy Dynamics Affecting Pakistan

  • Saudi-Iran rivalry — sectarian proxy tensions periodically spill into Pakistan's domestic sectarian violence
  • US-China-Russia great power competition — Afghanistan and Central Asia increasingly a stage for indirect influence competition

Pakistan's Official Position

  • Consistently denies using proxies (state position since ~2014 NAP commitment to "no good/bad Taliban" distinction)
  • Frames itself primarily as a victim of externally-sponsored proxy warfare (India-Balochistan-TTP linkage narrative)

Recent Developments (2024–2026)

  • "Fitna al-Hindustan" (May 2025): Pakistan's official label for Baloch militant groups, alleging Indian sponsorship; "Fitna al-Khawarij" for the TTP.
  • US designation of the BLA and Majeed Brigade as a terrorist organisation (August 2025) — partial international validation of Pakistan's position.
  • Jaffar Express hijacking (March 2025) — Pakistan alleged the attack was directed from Afghanistan with external backing.
  • Pahalgam (April 2025): India blamed Pakistan-based groups; Pakistan denied and offered a neutral investigation — a case of mutual proxy accusations leading to open conflict.
  • Afghanistan: Pakistan accuses Kabul of harbouring the TTP; Kabul denies. The 2026 Iran war and the Saudi–Iran equation keep sectarian proxy risks alive.

Argument Bank

  • Why Pakistan is a proxy target:
    • geostrategic location; CPEC (opposed by rivals)
    • India–Pakistan rivalry; Afghan instability
    • sectarian diversity; weak governance in the peripheries
  • Tools of proxy war:
    • funding and arming militants; sanctuaries
    • cyber attacks and propaganda
    • exploiting ethnic grievances
    • economic sabotage: attacks on Chinese nationals (Dasu 2021, Besham 2024, Karachi airport 2024)
  • Pakistan's own history:
    • Afghan jihad (1980s), Taliban support (1990s), Kashmir militancy
    • examiners reward acknowledging this and its "blowback"
  • Evidence Pakistan cites:
    • Kulbhushan Jadhav (ICJ 2019 upheld consular access, not the conviction question)
    • dossiers to the UN (2020)
  • Counter-strategy:
    • address Baloch grievances: development, missing persons, resource share
    • border management and intelligence coordination
    • diplomatic campaigns; SCO RATS cooperation
    • close internal fault lines

Answer Outline (20 marks)

  1. Introduction — define proxy war; thesis.
  2. Why Pakistan is vulnerable.
  3. External elements — India, Afghanistan, Middle East rivalries, great powers.
  4. Theatres — Balochistan, KP, sectarian conflicts, information space.
  5. Pakistan's own past role (balanced).
  6. Impact — security, CPEC, economy, social cohesion.
  7. Strategy to counter proxies.
  8. Conclusion — internal cohesion as the best defence.

Exam angle

  • Be balanced: Pakistan's official narrative (victim of proxies) alongside independent views (Pakistan's past use of proxies in Afghanistan and Kashmir).
  • Examiners reward nuanced, evidence-based answers over one-sided ones.

✍️ Model Answer (20 marks)

Question: Proxy wars have become a major threat to Pakistan's security. Discuss with reference to the role of external elements and suggest a counter-strategy.

Outline

  1. Introduction: defining proxy war
  2. Why Pakistan is vulnerable
  3. External elements and their role
  4. Theatres of proxy war
  5. Pakistan's own past role
  6. Impact
  7. Counter-strategy
  8. Conclusion

1. Introduction

  • Proxy war: an outside power pursues its aims by backing another actor (often a non-state group) instead of fighting directly.
  • In the nuclear age direct war is too costly, so proxies are preferred.
  • Pakistan sits where South Asian, Afghan and Middle Eastern rivalries meet.
  • It has been a user of proxies in the past and, increasingly, their target.

2. Why Pakistan Is Vulnerable

  • Geostrategic location and CPEC, which rivals oppose.
  • The India–Pakistan rivalry under nuclear deterrence encourages indirect conflict.
  • An unstable Afghanistan with porous borders.
  • Sectarian and ethnic diversity that can be exploited.
  • Weak governance and grievances in the peripheries (Balochistan, merged districts).

3. External Elements and Their Role

  • India: Pakistan alleges Indian sponsorship of Baloch militants and the TTP, citing the arrest of Kulbhushan Jadhav (2016) and dossiers submitted to the UN (2020). Since May 2025 Pakistan formally labels Baloch militant groups Fitna al-Hindustan.
  • Afghanistan: the Taliban government provides space to the TTP, which Pakistan calls Fitna al-Khawarij; Kabul denies this.
  • Middle East rivalries: the Saudi–Iran rivalry has fuelled sectarian violence in Pakistan; the 2026 Iran war increases the risk.
  • Great-power competition: the US–China rivalry plays out around CPEC and Gwadar.

4. Theatres of Proxy War

  • Balochistan: attacks on security forces, CPEC projects and Chinese nationals; the Jaffar Express hijacking (March 2025). The US designation of the BLA as a terrorist organisation (August 2025) partly validated Pakistan's concerns.
  • KP and the merged districts: TTP attacks.
  • Sectarian conflict: Kurram and elsewhere.
  • The information space: disinformation and propaganda campaigns, especially during the May 2025 crisis.
  • Economic targets: attacks on Chinese nationals at Dasu (2021), Besham (2024) and Karachi airport (2024).

5. Pakistan's Own Past Role

  • Supported the Afghan mujahideen (1980s) and the Taliban (1990s).
  • India accuses Pakistan of backing militancy in Kashmir.
  • "Blowback" costs: the TTP, sectarian militancy, international isolation.
  • Since NAP (2014): official policy of no "good" vs "bad" militants.

6. Impact

  • Security: thousands of deaths, and Pakistan among the most terrorism-affected countries.
  • Economy: reduced investment, delays to CPEC, higher security costs.
  • Diplomacy: strained relations with India, Afghanistan and at times Iran.
  • Social cohesion: ethnic and sectarian polarisation.

7. Counter-Strategy

  1. Close internal fault lines: address Baloch grievances (development, resource share, a missing persons commission); develop the merged districts.
  2. Security: intelligence-led operations, strong CTDs, protection of CPEC and foreign nationals.
  3. Border management: fencing, biometric control, monitoring mechanisms with Afghanistan and Iran.
  4. Diplomacy: present evidence at the UN and FATF; build on international designations of groups like the BLA.
  5. Regional cooperation: SCO RATS, China-mediated mechanisms, Saudi and Qatari mediation.
  6. Information defence: counter-narratives, media literacy, a cyber command.
  7. Consistency: a credible no-proxy policy of its own to strengthen Pakistan's moral case.

8. Conclusion

Proxy wars thrive where states have internal divisions and hostile neighbours. Pakistan cannot control the intentions of its rivals, but it can deny them opportunities by strengthening governance, resolving internal grievances and building regional cooperation. Internal cohesion is the best defence against external subversion.

📝 CSS Past Papers 2014–2026 — This Chapter (Solved)

📊

Asked so far: 1 subjective question (2020) · no MCQs. Linked chapters: VIII (non-state actors), XI (5th-generation war), XXIV (Afghanistan).

Part-II — Past Subjective Questions

1. CSS 2020 Q5 — What is meant by the term "proxy war"? Are there any extrinsic factors at play in the internal security situation of Pakistan? (20)

Outline

  1. Introduction
  2. Meaning of proxy war
  3. Pakistan's experience as a proxy battleground
  4. External factors in Pakistan's internal security
  5. Internal weaknesses that outsiders exploit
  6. Pakistan's response
  7. Conclusion

Answer

1. Introduction

  • Much of the violence Pakistan has faced over the past four decades has been encouraged, funded or sheltered from outside its borders. Understanding proxy war is therefore essential to understanding Pakistan's internal security.

2. Meaning of proxy war

  • A proxy war is a conflict in which a state fights an adversary indirectly by supporting third parties, usually armed non-state groups. This allows the sponsor to avoid open war and deny involvement. Andrew Mumford's Proxy Warfare is a standard study of the subject.
  • Well-known examples include the Afghan war of 1979 to 1989 and the more recent conflicts in Syria and Yemen.

3. Pakistan's experience as a proxy battleground

  • In the 1980s Pakistan was the base for the US-backed resistance against Soviet forces in Afghanistan.
  • In the 1990s the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia was played out through sectarian groups on Pakistani soil.
  • After 2001 the War on Terror brought militant violence into the heart of the country.

4. External factors in Pakistan's internal security

  • India. Kulbhushan Jadhav, an Indian naval officer arrested in Balochistan in March 2016, confessed to directing terrorist activity in Balochistan and Karachi on behalf of RAW. In November 2020 Pakistan released dossiers alleging Indian support for the TTP and BLA, and Indian officials such as Ajit Doval have openly spoken of a "defensive offence" strategy.
  • Afghanistan. The TTP and Baloch militant groups have found sanctuary across the border, and before 2021 Afghanistan's intelligence service was seen in Pakistan as hostile.
  • The Iran-Saudi rivalry. Both countries have at times funded sectarian groups in Pakistan.
  • Great-power competition. Opponents of CPEC have an interest in instability, and Chinese nationals have repeatedly been attacked.
  • Disinformation. The EU DisinfoLab's report on the "Indian Chronicles" in 2020 exposed a long-running campaign to damage Pakistan's image.

5. Internal weaknesses that outsiders exploit

  • Grievances in Balochistan.
  • The weak administration of the former tribal areas.
  • Sectarian divisions.
  • A slow criminal justice system.
  • High unemployment among young people.

6. Pakistan's response

  • The National Action Plan of 2014 set out a broad counter-terrorism strategy.
  • The western border has been fenced.
  • Operations such as Zarb-e-Azb and Radd-ul-Fasaad dismantled militant strongholds.
  • Pakistan has presented evidence of foreign involvement through dossiers and at the United Nations.
  • It has met FATF requirements and invested in development in Balochistan and the merged districts.

7. Conclusion

  • External actors are clearly involved in Pakistan's internal security problems. Yet they succeed mainly where internal divisions already exist. The most effective defence against proxy war is therefore to remove those divisions through good governance, justice and inclusive development.

Full 20-mark answer: CSS 2020 — Pakistan Affairs Paper (Solved)

🧠 Additional Practice Questions — Not Actual FPSC Past Papers

  • "Proxy wars have become a major threat to Pakistan's security. Discuss with reference to the role of external elements."
  • "Balochistan: a battleground of regional proxies. Discuss."