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VIII. Non-Traditional Security Threats: Role of Non-State Actors

📂 START HERE — How This Page Is Organised

No child pages here — read the sections below in order, then the solved past papers at the end.

📝 Actual CSS questions from this chapter

  • CSS 2018 Q5 — Non-state actors vs external state threats
  • CSS 2024 Q5 — Global warming as an existential threat

📺 Directly Relevant YouTube Lecture Sources

📌 Topic Contents

  1. 📖 What Counts as Non-Traditional Security (NTS)
  2. 📖 Non-State Actors in Pakistan's Context
  3. 📖 Other Non-Traditional Threats
  4. 📖 State Response
  5. 📖 Challenges
  6. 📖 Recent Developments (2024–2026)
  7. 📖 Argument Bank
  8. 📖 Categories of non-traditional threats
  9. 📖 Why non-state actors thrive
  10. 📖 What Pakistan has done
  11. 📖 Answer Outline (20 marks)
  12. 📖 Exam angle
  13. 📖 ✍️ Model Answer (20 marks)
  14. 📖 Outline
  15. 📖 1. Introduction
  16. 📖 2. Categories of Non-Traditional Threats
  17. 📖 3. Role of Non-State Actors

20-mark technique: frame a thesis; explain causes and consequences; substantiate claims; assess alternative explanations.

What Counts as Non-Traditional Security (NTS)

  • Threats beyond conventional inter-state war: terrorism, extremism, cyber threats, climate/water insecurity, organized crime, pandemics, food insecurity

Non-State Actors in Pakistan's Context

  • TTP (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan) — main internal terror threat, sanctuaries in Afghanistan post-2021 Taliban takeover
  • Baloch separatist groups (BLA, BLF) — targeting CPEC projects, security forces in Balochistan
  • Sectarian militant groups — periodic sectarian violence (Shia-Sunni)
  • ISKP (Islamic State-Khorasan Province) — smaller but lethal presence, targets minorities & state
  • Cross-border militancy complicates Pakistan-Afghanistan relations

Other Non-Traditional Threats

  • Cybersecurity — growing vulnerability of financial/state systems
  • Climate-induced security risks — 2022 floods displaced ~33 million, strained state capacity
  • Water security — Indus dependency, glacial melt, inter-provincial disputes (see Topic XVII)
  • Human trafficking & organized crime networks

State Response

  • National Action Plan (NAP, 2014) — post-APS Peshawar attack, 20-point counter-terrorism framework
  • Operations: Zarb-e-Azb (2014), Radd-ul-Fasaad (2017), Azm-e-Istehkam (2024) — targeting TTP/militant networks
  • National Counter Terrorism Authority (NACTA) — coordination body

Challenges

  • Afghan Taliban's reluctance/inability to act against TTP strains bilateral ties
  • Resurgence of attacks since 2021 despite years of counter-terror gains
  • Balancing military operations with human rights/displacement concerns (esp. in tribal districts)

Recent Developments (2024–2026)

  • Global Terrorism Index 2025: Pakistan ranked 2nd most affected country; terrorism deaths rose sharply, mostly in KP and Balochistan.
  • TTP: over 1,000 incidents in 2025 (ACLED); the state labels it Fitna al-Khawarij.
  • Baloch insurgency: Jaffar Express hijacking (March 2025); the state labels Baloch militant groups Fitna al-Hindustan (May 2025); the US designated the BLA and its Majeed Brigade as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation (August 2025).
  • Climate: 2025 monsoon floods; Pakistan remains among the most climate-vulnerable countries.
  • Energy and food security: the 2026 Iran war and Hormuz crisis spiked oil prices, showing how external shocks become domestic security issues.
  • Cyber and information warfare: disinformation campaigns during the May 2025 conflict; PECA amendments (2025).

Argument Bank

Categories of non-traditional threats

  • Terrorism and violent extremism
  • Sectarianism and ethnic separatism
  • Climate change and water scarcity (2022 floods: about $30 billion in losses)
  • Food and energy insecurity
  • Pandemics (COVID-19)
  • Cyber threats and disinformation
  • Narcotics, smuggling, human trafficking
  • Population pressure and urban crime

Why non-state actors thrive

  • Porous borders and weakly governed spaces (ex-FATA, Balochistan)
  • Legacy of the Afghan jihad and past tolerance of some groups
  • Poverty, unemployment and poor education
  • Weak criminal justice (low conviction rates)
  • Foreign sponsorship and sanctuaries
  • Terror financing through hawala and extortion

What Pakistan has done

  • NAP (2014, revised 2021), NACTA, provincial CTDs
  • FATF grey list exit (October 2022)
  • Operations: Rah-e-Nijat, Zarb-e-Azb, Radd-ul-Fasaad, Azm-e-Istehkam
  • Counter-narrative: Paigham-e-Pakistan
  • National Internal Security Policy (2014, 2018)
  • First National Security Policy (2022) — comprehensive security

Answer Outline (20 marks)

  1. Introduction — define traditional vs non-traditional security (Copenhagen School, securitisation).
  2. Categories of NTS threats in Pakistan with data.
  3. Role of non-state actors — TTP, Baloch groups, ISKP, sectarian groups, criminal networks.
  4. Root causes.
  5. State response and its gaps.
  6. Comprehensive strategy — governance, police and justice reform, border management, climate adaptation, counter-radicalisation, regional cooperation.
  7. Conclusion — human security as the foundation of national security.

Exam angle

  • Define traditional (state-to-state) vs non-traditional threats first.
  • Examiners like this conceptual framing before the specifics.

✍️ Model Answer (20 marks)

Question: Non-traditional security threats have become as dangerous for Pakistan as traditional ones. Discuss the role of non-state actors and suggest a comprehensive strategy.

Outline

  1. Introduction and concepts
  2. Categories of non-traditional threats
  3. Role of non-state actors
  4. Root causes
  5. State response
  6. Gaps
  7. Comprehensive strategy
  8. Conclusion

1. Introduction

  • Traditional security: military threats from other states.
  • Non-traditional security (NTS): threats not from armies — terrorism, climate change, pandemics, food and energy insecurity, cyber attacks, organised crime.
  • The Copenhagen School: issues become "securitised" once they threaten survival.
  • For Pakistan, NTS threats are now central:
    • 2nd most terrorism-affected country (Global Terrorism Index 2025)
    • 2022 floods: about $30 billion in losses
  • The first National Security Policy (2022) adopted a comprehensive, citizen-centred idea of security.

2. Categories of Non-Traditional Threats

  • Terrorism and extremism: TTP, ISKP, sectarian groups.
  • Separatist insurgency: Baloch militant groups.
  • Climate change: floods (2022, 2025), heatwaves, glacier melt.
  • Water scarcity: falling per capita availability, provincial and transboundary disputes.
  • Food and energy insecurity: import dependence exposed by the 2026 Iran war oil shock.
  • Cyber threats and disinformation: attacks on systems and information warfare during the May 2025 crisis.
  • Organised crime: narcotics, smuggling, human trafficking.
  • Health security: pandemics, polio.

3. Role of Non-State Actors

  • TTP: over 1,000 incidents in 2025, operating from sanctuaries in Afghanistan; the state now labels it Fitna al-Khawarij.
  • Baloch militant groups: attacks on security forces, CPEC and Chinese nationals; the Jaffar Express hijacking (March 2025); designated Fitna al-Hindustan by the state and, in the case of the BLA and Majeed Brigade, as a terrorist organisation by the US (August 2025).
  • ISKP: targets minorities, the state and the Taliban alike.
  • Sectarian groups: Kurram clashes (2024–25).
  • Criminal networks: smuggling, extortion and terror financing via hawala.

4. Root Causes

  1. Porous borders and ungoverned spaces (ex-FATA, parts of Balochistan).
  2. The legacy of the Afghan jihad and past tolerance of some militant groups.
  3. Poverty (28.9%), unemployment and poor education.
  4. A weak criminal justice system with low conviction rates.
  5. Foreign sponsorship and sanctuaries.
  6. Unaddressed political grievances (Balochistan, merged districts).
  7. Climate vulnerability combined with weak state capacity.

5. State Response

  • National Action Plan (2014, revised 2021), NACTA and provincial counter-terrorism departments.
  • Military operations: Rah-e-Nijat, Zarb-e-Azb, Radd-ul-Fasaad, Azm-e-Istehkam (2024).
  • Counter-financing: exit from the FATF grey list (October 2022).
  • Counter-narrative: Paigham-e-Pakistan (2018).
  • Climate: National Adaptation Plan (2023); advocacy that helped create the Loss and Damage Fund.

6. Gaps

  • Over-reliance on kinetic operations; slow civilian follow-up.
  • Poorly funded police and courts.
  • Madrassa reform and de-radicalisation incomplete.
  • Weak coordination between federal and provincial agencies.
  • Climate adaptation underfunded.

7. Comprehensive Strategy

  1. Governance first: development, justice and services in the merged districts and Balochistan.
  2. Police and justice reform: modern CTDs, forensics, witness protection, speedy trials.
  3. Border management: fencing, biometric crossings, legal border markets.
  4. Regional cooperation: a verifiable mechanism with Afghanistan, SCO RATS, intelligence sharing.
  5. Counter-radicalisation: curriculum and madrassa reform, youth employment, online counter-narratives.
  6. Terror financing: sustain FATF-level standards and target extortion networks.
  7. Climate and water security: storage, early warning, resilient infrastructure.
  8. Cyber security: a national cyber authority and protection of critical infrastructure.
  9. Political solutions: dialogue with alienated groups alongside firm action against militants.

8. Conclusion

For Pakistan, the most immediate threats to citizens now come less from foreign armies than from militants, floods, economic shocks and disinformation. These threats cannot be defeated by force alone; they require capable institutions, inclusive development and regional cooperation. Human security, meaning the safety, welfare and dignity of every citizen, must become the foundation of national security.

📝 CSS Past Papers 2014–2026 — This Chapter (Solved)

📊

Asked so far: 2 subjective questions (2018, and 2024 on climate change as a non-traditional threat) · 2 MCQs (2015, 2020).

2014–2023 MCQs come from published answer keys (the FPSC copies only contain Part-II), so their options are rewritten but the keyed answer is kept and checked.

Part-I — Past MCQs

1. (CSS 2015) The Quaid-e-Azam Residency attacked by militants in 2013 is located at:

  • (A) Ziarat
  • (B) Quetta
  • (C) Karachi
  • (D) Malir
  • ✅ (A) Ziarat — the wooden residency of the Quaid's last days; burnt by BLA militants on 15 June 2013, later rebuilt.

2. (CSS 2020) Operation Zarb-e-Azb was launched on:

  • (A) 16 December 2014
  • (B) 15 June 2014
  • (C) 22 February 2017
  • (D) 8 June 2014
  • ✅ (B) 15 June 2014 — North Waziristan, a week after the Karachi airport attack (8 June).
    • Then NAP (December 2014, after APS) and Radd-ul-Fasaad (22 February 2017).

Part-II — Past Subjective Questions

1. CSS 2018 Q5 — Define non-state actors. "Non-state actors are posing more threat to Pakistan's national security than threats from external state actors." Argue in favour or against. (20)

Outline

  1. Introduction and stance
  2. Meaning and types of non-state actors
  3. The rise of non-state actors in Pakistan
  4. Arguments in favour of the statement
  5. Arguments against the statement
  6. The link between states and non-state actors
  7. Pakistan's response
  8. Conclusion

Answer

1. Introduction and stance

  • Since 2001, the greatest loss of Pakistani lives has come not from foreign armies but from militant groups operating inside the country. This answer agrees with the statement, while recognising that the threat from hostile states has not disappeared and is often connected to it.

2. Meaning and types of non-state actors

  • Non-state actors are individuals or organisations that exercise political or military influence without belonging to any state.
  • Harmful examples include terrorist and militant groups, separatist insurgents, sectarian outfits and organised criminal networks. Multinational companies and NGOs are also non-state actors, but they are generally benign.

3. The rise of non-state actors in Pakistan

  • The Afghan war of the 1980s left behind weapons, trained fighters and a militant ideology.
  • After 9/11, Pakistan's alliance with the United States provoked a violent backlash. The TTP was formed in 2007.
  • Baloch separatist groups such as the BLA and BLF, sectarian groups such as Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, ISKP and criminal gangs in Karachi have added to the threat.

4. Arguments in favour of the statement

  • Between 70,000 and 80,000 Pakistanis have been killed in terrorism since 2001, and the Economic Survey estimated economic losses at about 126 billion dollars up to 2018.
  • Militants have struck the most sensitive targets, including GHQ (2009), PNS Mehran (2011) and the Army Public School in Peshawar (2014).
  • Attacks on CPEC projects and Chinese nationals threaten Pakistan's economic future.
  • 2025 was among the deadliest years in a decade, showing that the threat is growing again.
  • Such groups weaken the writ of the state and frighten away investors.

5. Arguments against the statement

  • India remains a serious conventional and nuclear threat, as the Pulwama-Balakot crisis of 2019 and the conflict of May 2025 showed.
  • Relations with the Taliban government in Kabul have turned hostile.
  • Rival states also wage hybrid and information warfare against Pakistan.

6. The link between states and non-state actors

  • The two kinds of threat are often connected. The arrest of Kulbhushan Jadhav in 2016 and the dossiers Pakistan released in 2020 point to foreign support for the TTP and BLA.
  • In practice, much of the danger comes from non-state actors that are sponsored or sheltered by hostile states.

7. Pakistan's response

  • The National Action Plan (2014), later revised, set out a broad counter-terrorism strategy.
  • Military operations such as Zarb-e-Azb, Radd-ul-Fasaad and Azm-e-Istehkam (2024) have targeted militant strongholds.
  • NACTA, the Paigham-e-Pakistan fatwa, compliance with FATF requirements and fencing of the western border have supported these efforts.

8. Conclusion

  • Non-state actors are the more immediate and costly threat to Pakistan's security today. Force alone will not defeat them, however. Good governance, a working justice system and a convincing counter-narrative are just as necessary.

Full 20-mark answer: CSS 2018 — Pakistan Affairs Paper (Solved)

2. CSS 2024 Q5 — Global warming presents an existential threat to states like Pakistan. Examine its far-reaching impacts on Pakistan and propose a model of economic development that aligns with environmental protection. (20)

Outline

  1. Introduction
  2. Why Pakistan is so vulnerable
  3. Impacts of global warming on Pakistan
  4. Policy response so far
  5. A proposed model: climate-resilient green growth
  6. Financing the model
  7. Conclusion

Answer

1. Introduction

  • Pakistan produces less than one per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet it is among the countries most affected by climate change. Germanwatch's Climate Risk Index 2021 ranked it eighth.
  • The floods of 2022 put about a third of the country under water, affected some 33 million people, killed around 1,700 and caused about 30 billion dollars in damage and losses.

2. Why Pakistan is so vulnerable

  • More than 7,000 glaciers in the northern mountains feed the Indus, so any change in their behaviour affects the whole country.
  • The economy depends heavily on agriculture and therefore on water and weather.
  • Cities such as Jacobabad are among the hottest in the world, the coastline is long and low-lying, and poverty limits people's ability to cope.

3. Impacts of global warming on Pakistan

  • Floods. Major floods in 2010, 2022 and 2025 have destroyed homes, crops and infrastructure.
  • Glacier melt. More than 3,000 glacial lakes have formed in the north, and some could burst without warning.
  • Heatwaves. The Karachi heatwave of 2015 killed over a thousand people, and temperatures above 50°C are becoming more common.
  • Water scarcity. Water availability has fallen below 1,000 cubic metres per person a year.
  • Agriculture and food. Heat, floods and locust attacks have reduced harvests.
  • Health. Floods are followed by outbreaks of malaria, dengue and waterborne disease.
  • The economy. The 2022 floods alone cost about eight per cent of GDP.
  • Displacement, the coast and security. People are moving to cities, seawater is advancing into the Indus delta, and competition for water is increasing tension between provinces and with India.

4. Policy response so far

  • Pakistan passed the Climate Change Act in 2017 and updated its National Climate Change Policy in 2021.
  • Its updated NDC commits it, subject to support, to 60 per cent renewable energy and 30 per cent electric vehicles by 2030.
  • The Ten Billion Tree Tsunami, the Living Indus initiative and the National Adaptation Plan (2023) are important steps.
  • At COP27 in 2022, Pakistan led the G77 in securing agreement on a Loss and Damage Fund.

5. A proposed model: climate-resilient green growth

  • Clean energy. The country should move from imported fossil fuels to solar, wind, hydro and nuclear power.
  • Climate-smart agriculture. Farmers need drip irrigation, heat-tolerant seeds and crop insurance.
  • Water security. More storage, recharge of groundwater and efficient irrigation are essential.
  • Resilient cities. Building codes, flood zoning and early warning systems can save lives.
  • Nature-based solutions. Restoring mangroves, forests and wetlands protects against floods and storms.
  • Green industry. Recycling and cleaner production reduce pollution while creating jobs.
  • Social protection. BISP can be used to deliver cash quickly to families hit by disasters.
  • Planning. Climate considerations should be built into every budget through climate budget tagging.

6. Financing the model

  • Pakistan can draw on the Loss and Damage Fund, the Green Climate Fund and the IMF's Resilience and Sustainability Facility approved in 2025.
  • Green bonds, debt-for-nature swaps and carbon markets under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement offer further sources.

7. Conclusion

  • For Pakistan, global warming is a direct threat to water, food, health and the economy. The country cannot afford to choose between growth and the environment. A model of development built on clean energy, resilient farming and protected natural systems is the only path that will remain sustainable.

Full 20-mark answer: CSS 2024 — Pakistan Affairs Paper (Solved)

🧠 Additional Practice Questions — Not Actual FPSC Past Papers

  • "Non-traditional security threats are more dangerous for Pakistan than traditional threats. Discuss."
  • "Discuss the role of non-state actors in Pakistan's security and suggest a comprehensive strategy."
  • "Climate change as a national security threat for Pakistan."