Gaza Peace Plan, US-Israel-Iran War & Global Energy Crisis (2025–26) — Current Affairs

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Syllabus: Global Issues → Middle East Crisis · Palestine Issue · Global Energy Politics (40 marks) Last updated: 26 October 2026 Recheck before exam: Israeli election result (vote on 27 Oct 2026) · ISF deployment · US–Iran talks via Pakistan · Hormuz fee arrangements Related: 2026 Iran War (US-Israel vs Iran) & Middle East Crisis · 16. Palestine Issue

🧭 On This Page

Past-Paper Link & Likely Questions
Key Points (2-minute revision)
Background in Simple Words
Part A — Gaza Peace Plan & Board of Peace
Part B — US-Israel-Iran War & Pakistan's Mediation
Part C — Global Energy Crisis & Strait of Hormuz
Facts & Figures Box
How the Three Connect
Impact on Pakistan
Way Forward
Scholarly Evidence & Counter-Argument
MCQ Fact Bank & Traps
Self-Test
20-Mark Answer (outline + full answer)

1. Past-Paper Link & Likely Questions

2026 Q7 (actual): "Conduct a critical analysis of the prospects of resolution of the Palestinian conflict with special reference to the UN Security Council's recently approved U.S. drafted resolution for peace in Gaza. Can Pakistan play any role in this initiative?"
Related: 2024 Q6 (Palestine escalation and big powers); 2016 Q6 & 2024 Q5 (Saudi–Iran, Pakistan's role); 2023 Q7 (energy geopolitics).
Likely 2027 angles:
- Gaza plan one year on — success or failure?
- Pakistan as US–Iran mediator
- Hormuz crisis and global energy security

2. Key Points (2-minute revision)

Gaza ceasefire began 10 Oct 2025; UNSC Res. 2803 (Nov 2025) endorsed Trump's 20-point plan.
Board of Peace (chaired by Trump), NCAG (Palestinian technocrats), ISF (stabilisation force).
One year on (Oct 2026): 1,400+ Palestinians killed since ceasefire; ISF not operational; no meaningful reconstruction.
Iran war began 28 Feb 2026; Pakistan brokered 8 Apr ceasefire and hosted Islamabad talks; Islamabad MoU 17 Jun 2026.
Fighting resumed 8 Jul; renewed rounds since; Pakistan remains the main mediator.
Hormuz: ~20% of world oil; Iran seeks transit fees; Pakistan wants toll-free passage.
Frame: paper peace vs ground reality + Pakistan as a trusted mediator.

3. Background in Simple Words

Gaza: after two years of war, a US plan produced a ceasefire and a new governing structure — but on the ground, killings continue and the plan has not moved forward.
Iran war: the US and Israel attacked Iran in Feb 2026; Pakistan, trusted by both sides, became the main go-between.
Energy: the war shut or squeezed the Strait of Hormuz, causing the biggest oil-supply shock in history.
Pakistan: supports Palestine, mediates for peace, and suffers from high fuel prices.

4. Part A — Gaza Peace Plan & Board of Peace

4.1 Structure of the plan

20-point plan (29 Sept 2025).
Board of Peace (BoP) — chaired by Trump; executive members include Rubio, Witkoff, Kushner, Tony Blair, Ajay Banga, Hakan Fidan.
High Representative for Gaza: Nickolay Mladenov.
NCAG — 15 Palestinian technocrats to run Gaza.
ISF — commander US Maj. Gen. Jasper Jeffers; mandate under Res. 2803 until end-2027.

4.2 Timeline (oldest → newest)

7 Oct 2023 — Hamas attack; Israel's war on Gaza.
29 Sept 2025 — Trump's 20-point plan.
10 Oct 2025 — Ceasefire begins.
Nov 2025 — UNSC Resolution 2803 endorses plan.
Jan 2026 — Last hostage remains returned; Phase Two announced; BoP named.
19 Feb 2026 — BoP inaugural meeting, Washington.
28 Feb 2026 — Rafah closed as Iran war starts.
26 Jul 2026 — Israel's cabinet approves ISF entry (outside Israeli-held areas).
30–31 Jul 2026 — Hamas disarmament document; BoP publishes full roadmap.
26 Aug 2026 — Mladenov warns of a "point of no return".
7 Sept 2026 — Kushner blames Israel's election for the stall.
10 Oct 2026 — One year of ceasefire: 1,400+ killed since; ISF not deployed; no meaningful reconstruction.
1–15 Oct 2026 — Israel reportedly blocks a BoP base in Gaza; IDF reports 31 violations.
27 Oct 2026 — Israeli general election.

4.3 Why it is stuck

Hamas not disarmed despite July pledge.
Israel keeps ~60% of Gaza; refuses withdrawal before full disarmament; rejected follow-on plan.
ISF troop pledges stalled — Indonesia's 8,000 on hold; Israel vetoed Türkiye.
NCAG has not entered Gaza.
Israeli election politics freeze decisions.
West Bank — E1 settlement plan threatens a Palestinian state.

5. Part B — US-Israel-Iran War & Pakistan's Mediation

5.1 Timeline (oldest → newest)

28 Feb 2026 — US–Israel strikes (Operation Epic Fury); Iran's leadership killed; Iran retaliates on Israel, US bases, Gulf states.
2 Mar 2026 — War spreads to Lebanon.
25 Mar 2026 — Pakistan delivers US 15-point proposal to Iran.
8 Apr 2026 — Pakistan-mediated two-week ceasefire.
11 Apr 2026 — Islamabad talks — highest-level US–Iran talks since 1979; no deal.
13 Apr 2026 — US naval blockade of Iranian ports.
21 Apr 2026 — Trump extends ceasefire indefinitely.
May 2026 — Field Marshal Munir in Tehran; "encouraging progress".
17 Jun 2026 — Islamabad MoU (Pakistan with Qatar) — 60-day roadmap; toll-free Hormuz for 60 days.
21 Jun 2026 — US–Iran–Pakistan–Qatar meeting, Lake Lucerne.
8–10 Jul 2026 — Fighting resumes; Trump: ceasefire "over", but talks continue.
14 Jul 2026 — US re-imposes blockade; Trump proposes 20% Hormuz fee.
30 Jul 2026 — US strikes IRGC; Iran hits Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt.
Aug 2026 — Both sides agree to extend MoU deadline (17 Aug); Pakistan invites Ghalibaf and Araghchi.
30 Aug 2026 — Active fighting resumes.
6 Oct 2026 — UN chief Guterres in Islamabad: Pakistan "trusted" even by countries at odds.

5.2 Why Pakistan is the mediator

Good ties with both Washington (Munir–Trump rapport) and Tehran (900 km border, second-largest Shia population).
Gulf backing — Saudi FM publicly praised Pakistan's mediation.
China's support for the process.
Gains: global standing, Gulf and US goodwill, protection from spillover.
Risks: blame if talks fail; balancing Makkah pact (Saudi) vs Iran.

6. Part C — Global Energy Crisis & Strait of Hormuz

6.1 Scale

IEA: largest supply disruption in oil-market history.
Hormuz normally carries ~20% of world oil and LNG.
Supply losses: 12.8 mb/d by April 2026.
Brent peaked ~ $120** (March); later **$ 85–92.
Fertiliser costs up ~31% → food insecurity.

6.2 Hormuz tolls dispute

Iran charged up to $2m per voyage (March) and collected first toll revenue (July).
Iran–Oman discussing joint administration: Iran seeks 5–7% of cargo value; Oman ~3%; US opposes any fees.
Trump floated a 20% US "guardian" fee (July).
Pakistan's position (Ishaq Dar): no fees — toll-free passage.

7. Facts & Figures Box (as of 26 Oct 2026)

Item	Detail
Gaza ceasefire	10 Oct 2025
UNSC endorsement	Resolution 2803, Nov 2025
Killed since ceasefire	1,400+ Palestinians (Oct 2026)
ISF	Commander Jasper Jeffers; not operational
Iran war start	28 Feb 2026
Pakistan-mediated ceasefire	8 Apr 2026
Islamabad MoU	17 Jun 2026 (60 days)
Hormuz share	~20% of world oil & LNG
Peak Brent	~$120/bbl (Mar 2026)
Israeli election	27 Oct 2026

8. How the Three Connect

Iran war (security) → Hormuz closure (economy) → energy crisis (global).
Iran war overshadowed Gaza and froze ISF pledges.
Pakistan sits at the centre: mediator (Iran), advocate (Palestine), victim (energy prices), ally (Makkah pact).

9. Impact on Pakistan

Diplomatic gain: recognised as trusted mediator (UN chief, Oct 2026).
Economic cost: record fuel prices; import bill and inflation pressure.
Security: western border pressure with Iran-war spillover; Gulf workers' safety.
Strategic balancing: Saudi (Makkah pact) vs Iran (neighbour).
Palestine: moral and public pressure to back a two-state outcome; possible ISF role debated.

10. Way Forward

Gaza: enforce ceasefire; deploy ISF with Muslim troop contributors under clear UN rules; open crossings; start reconstruction; time-bound path to statehood.
Iran: turn Islamabad MoU into a permanent settlement — nuclear limits for sanctions relief.
Hormuz: a UN-backed, toll-free navigation regime.
Pakistan: keep neutrality; involve China, Qatar, Türkiye; diversify energy (renewables, Central Asian links); strategic oil reserves.

11. Scholarly Evidence & Counter-Argument

11.1 Quote in answers

UNSC Resolution 2803 and Res. 242 / 338 (land for peace).
ICJ advisory opinion (July 2024) — occupation unlawful.
Rashid Khalidi, The Hundred Years' War on Palestine (2020).
IEA — largest oil disruption in history.
Antonio Guterres (Oct 2026) — Pakistan "trusted" mediator.

11.2 Counter-argument and reply

Claim: the Gaza plan is the most serious peace effort in years; the ceasefire saved lives.
Reply: a ceasefire under which 1,400+ have died and no reconstruction has begun is a pause, not peace; without statehood and enforcement it will collapse.

12. MCQ Fact Bank & Traps

UNSC resolution endorsing Trump's Gaza plan:
- (A) 242
- (B) 2334
- (C) 2728
- (D) 2803
- Answer: (D). November 2025. 2334 (2016) condemned settlements.
The US–Iran ceasefire of 8 April 2026 was mediated by:
- (A) Qatar
- (B) Oman
- (C) Pakistan
- (D) Türkiye
- Answer: (C). Followed by Islamabad talks on 11 April.
The "Islamabad MoU" between the US and Iran was signed on:
- (A) 8 April 2026
- (B) 17 June 2026
- (C) 10 July 2026
- (D) 6 October 2026
- Answer: (B). A 60-day roadmap; later extended.
Who commands the International Stabilization Force for Gaza?
- (A) Tony Blair
- (B) Nickolay Mladenov
- (C) Jasper Jeffers
- (D) Steve Witkoff
- Answer: (C). Mladenov is the BoP High Representative.
Roughly what share of world oil normally passes through Hormuz?
- (A) 5%
- (B) 10%
- (C) 20%
- (D) 40%
- Answer: (C). Also ~20% of LNG.

Traps

Gaza ceasefire = Oct 2025; Iran war = Feb 2026 — separate crises.
Board of Peace (Trump) ≠ NCAG (Palestinian technocrats) ≠ ISF (troops).
Islamabad talks (11 Apr) failed; Islamabad MoU (17 Jun) was signed.

13. Self-Test

Name the three bodies under the Gaza plan and their roles.
Five reasons the Gaza plan has stalled.
Why is Pakistan trusted as a US–Iran mediator?
How did the Iran war affect Pakistan's economy?

14. 20-Mark Answer

Question (based on 2026 Q7, updated): Critically analyse the prospects of resolving the Palestinian conflict in the light of Trump's Gaza peace plan and UNSC Resolution 2803, one year after the ceasefire. Can Pakistan play any role? (20 marks)

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Time: 35–40 minutes · Length: about 1,500–1,700 words · Marks come from: plan structure, one-year scorecard with figures, Israeli/Hamas/regional obstacles, a clear verdict on prospects, a separate and specific Pakistan section.

14.1 Outline

I. Introduction — thesis: a paper peace without the tools to become real
II. Background
III. The Plan and Resolution 2803
- A. Board of Peace
- B. NCAG
- C. ISF
- D. Disarmament and withdrawal
IV. One-Year Scorecard
- A. Achievements
- B. Failures
V. Obstacles to Resolution
1. Disarmament vs withdrawal deadlock
2. Israeli politics
3. Stalled ISF
4. West Bank settlements
5. Regional war (Iran, Lebanon)
6. Legitimacy deficit
VI. Prospects — Three Scenarios
VII. Can Pakistan Play a Role?
VIII. Way Forward
IX. Conclusion

14.2 Model Answer

I. Introduction

The Gaza ceasefire of 10 October 2025 and UNSC Resolution 2803 created the most detailed international framework for Gaza in decades.
One year later, the framework exists mostly on paper: more than 1,400 Palestinians have been killed since the ceasefire, the stabilisation force is not operating and reconstruction has barely started.
Thesis: the plan has stopped full-scale war but cannot resolve the conflict unless it secures disarmament with Israeli withdrawal, a credible force and a real path to statehood. Pakistan can contribute through diplomacy, mediation and a carefully conditioned role in stabilisation.

II. Background

The Hamas attack of 7 October 2023 led to Israel's war on Gaza, killing over 70,000 Palestinians by late 2025 according to Gaza's Health Ministry.
Earlier frameworks — Resolutions 242 and 338, Oslo, the Arab Peace Initiative — all failed to deliver a Palestinian state.

III. The Plan and Resolution 2803

Board of Peace: chaired by President Trump, with members such as Tony Blair and Jared Kushner; Nickolay Mladenov is High Representative.
NCAG: 15 Palestinian technocrats meant to run Gaza after Hamas.
ISF: an international force under US Maj. Gen. Jasper Jeffers, authorised until the end of 2027.
Sequence: Hamas disarms → Israel withdraws → reconstruction → "credible path" to self-determination.

IV. One-Year Scorecard

A. Achievements

Large-scale bombing stopped and all hostages were returned by January 2026.
A UN mandate gave the process legal backing.
Hamas signed a disarmament document in July 2026, and Israel approved ISF entry in principle.

B. Failures

Over 1,400 Palestinians killed since the ceasefire; Israel reported 31 violations in the first half of October 2026 alone.
No ISF deployment; Indonesia's 8,000 troops on hold.
The NCAG has not entered Gaza; Israel still holds around 60% of the Strip.
Reconstruction has not meaningfully begun.

V. Obstacles to Resolution

Disarmament vs withdrawal: Israel will not withdraw before full disarmament; Hamas will not disarm while occupation continues.
Israeli politics: the 27 October 2026 election froze decisions, as even Kushner admitted.
Stalled ISF: contributors fear fighting Hamas or being seen as occupiers; Israel vetoed Türkiye.
West Bank: the E1 settlement plan threatens a contiguous Palestinian state.
Regional war: the Iran war and the Lebanon front pulled attention and troops away.
Legitimacy deficit: critics call foreign supervision of Gaza a "colonial structure"; Palestinians have little ownership.

VI. Prospects — Three Scenarios

Best case: a new Israeli government accepts phased withdrawal tied to verified disarmament; the ISF deploys with Muslim contributors; reconstruction begins.
Likely case: a frozen conflict — a ceasefire with daily violence, partial aid and no political track.
Worst case: collapse into full war, as Mladenov warned in August 2026.
Verdict: without statehood on the agenda, the plan can manage the conflict but not resolve it.

VII. Can Pakistan Play a Role?

Diplomatic voice: Pakistan consistently backs a sovereign Palestinian state on pre-1967 borders with Al-Quds as its capital, at the UN and OIC.
Proven mediator: Pakistan brokered the 8 April 2026 US–Iran ceasefire and the Islamabad MoU; the UN Secretary-General called it a "trusted" mediator in October 2026. That credibility can be used to push Gaza back onto the regional agenda.
Bridge with Gulf and Türkiye: through the Makkah pact and OIC, Pakistan can coordinate a common Muslim position on the ISF and reconstruction.
Possible ISF role: Pakistan has long UN peacekeeping experience, but any contribution should require a clear UN mandate, no role in forcible disarmament, and a time-bound path to statehood.
Humanitarian support: aid, medical teams and reconstruction expertise.
Limits: no diplomatic ties with Israel, domestic opinion, and the risk of being drawn into conflict.

VIII. Way Forward

Enforce the ceasefire with an independent monitoring mechanism.
Sequence disarmament and withdrawal together, verified step by step.
Deploy the ISF under clear UN rules, with Muslim and neutral contributors.
Open all crossings and start reconstruction under Palestinian ownership.
Freeze settlements and set a time-bound statehood negotiation.
Reform the Board of Peace to include stronger Palestinian and UN roles.

IX. Conclusion

The Gaza plan has paused the war but not ended the conflict; peace on paper is not peace on the ground.
Lasting resolution needs what every earlier plan lacked — enforcement, fairness and a Palestinian state.
Pakistan, with new credibility as a mediator, can help keep that goal alive while avoiding commitments that compromise its principled stand.

Sources

Last updated: 26 October 2026 — page restructured; one-year Gaza scorecard, Pakistan's mediation timeline, Hormuz tolls and a full 20-mark answer added.