Global Security, Political Economy and the New Order
The post-Cold War "unipolar moment" of the 1990s has decisively ended. International relations today are best described as multipolar with renewed great-power competition, organised around three axes: the US-China rivalry, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the rise of middle powers asserting strategic autonomy.
A distribution of international power in which several states or blocs hold significant economic, military and diplomatic weight, none able to dictate outcomes alone. The current order is often described as multipolar but uneven — the US retains the lead, but its primacy is constrained.
The US-China rivalry
The 2017 US National Security Strategy named China a "strategic competitor." Since then the rivalry has hardened into a structural feature of world politics, with several active fronts:
- Technology — Export controls on advanced semiconductors and AI; the CHIPS Act (USA) and "Made in China 2025" / "New Quality Productive Forces" agendas.
- Trade — Section 301 tariffs from 2018, expanded in 2024 to electric vehicles and critical minerals.
- Indo-Pacific — AUKUS (Australia-UK-US, 2021), the Quad (US, Japan, India, Australia), and Philippine basing agreements.
- Taiwan — The single most dangerous flashpoint; defence appropriations and arms sales have grown sharply since 2022.
Decoupling has not occurred at scale — total US-China goods trade remained around USD 600 billion in 2023 — but de-risking of strategic supply chains is real.
The Russia-Ukraine war
Russia's full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022 is the largest interstate war in Europe since 1945. Its consequences extend far beyond the battlefield:
| Domain | Effect |
|---|---|
| Energy | European gas weaning from Russia; LNG boom; Pakistan's furnace-oil and fertiliser costs rise |
| Food | Black Sea grain disruptions; wheat and edible oil prices spike for import-dependent countries |
| Sanctions | Western financial sanctions on Russia accelerate dedollarisation debates in the Global South |
| Alignments | Russia-China "no-limits partnership"; revival of BRICS as a forum |
Pakistan's economy felt the war indirectly: a fertiliser and energy-price shock in 2022 worsened the balance-of-payments crisis that led to the 2023 stand-by and 2024 EFF with the IMF.
BRICS and the Global South
BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) expanded at its Johannesburg Summit in August 2023, admitting Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Argentina (Argentina later declined). The bloc now represents roughly 45 percent of the world's population and 35 percent of global GDP at PPP. Its agenda includes:
- A New Development Bank as an alternative to the World Bank
- Local-currency trade to reduce dollar exposure
- Reform of UN Security Council and IMF voting weights
Pakistan applied to join BRICS in 2023; the bloc has paused further expansion pending procedures.
International political economy after COVID-19
Three structural shifts shape the global economy:
- Higher-for-longer interest rates in advanced economies tighten financing for emerging markets — including Pakistan's external borrowing.
- Industrial policy is back — the US Inflation Reduction Act (2022), the EU Green Deal Industrial Plan, and China's overcapacity in EVs and solar push back against pure free-trade orthodoxy.
- Debt distress — Around 60 percent of low-income countries are at high risk of debt distress; the G20 Common Framework has performed weakly.
Global flows of foreign direct investment have declined for two consecutive years, with the steepest falls in least-developed countries — undermining their capacity to meet the Sustainable Development Goals.
Nuclear politics
The global non-proliferation regime is under stress on multiple fronts:
- New START Treaty (US-Russia) is the last remaining strategic-arms treaty; Russia "suspended participation" in February 2023.
- Iran's nuclear programme — Stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium has grown since the JCPOA's effective collapse in 2018-19.
- North Korea — Continues missile testing and has codified first-use doctrine.
- AUKUS — Sets a precedent for nuclear-powered submarine cooperation with a non-nuclear-weapons state, which non-aligned countries view warily.
For Pakistan, every loosening of non-proliferation norms is a double-edged sword: it weakens the discriminatory pressure on Pakistan, but it also raises proliferation risks in its neighbourhood.
When writing on global political economy, anchor your essay in a concrete shock — the 2022 grain crisis, the 2023 banking turmoil, or the 2024 Red Sea shipping disruption — and trace its effects to Pakistan. Examiners value applied analysis over textbook recitation.
Stories to track
- Outcome of the Ukraine war and Western Russia policy
- US-China tech war and chip export controls
- BRICS+ trajectory after the Kazan summit (October 2024)
- IMF reform proposals (quota review, SDR re-channelling)
- Red Sea shipping security and Houthi attacks